Who gets in? Prices, preferences, and selective university programs

Who gets access to the most selective university programs, and how do financial incentives shape these outcomes? This paper examines socioeconomic differences in access to selective degrees in Spain and how they have evolved over time. Using confidential administrative microdata from the Service for University Access and Admissions in Andalusia, covering nearly the universe of applicants between 2011 and 2025, we study how students make joint choices over fields of study and institutions, with a focus on high-selectivity ("elite'') and STEM programs. First, we analyze possible differences in application behavior. The propensity to apply to selective programs and the number of choices submitted might vary by gender, socioeconomic background, academic performance, and location, and these differences translate into unequal admission outcomes. Second, we exploit a major tuition reform introduced in 2017/18, which provides a 99% subsidy on tuition fees for credits passed on first attempt. We leverage variation in exposure to the reform across cohorts and student groups in a difference-in-differences framework. We check whether by lowering the expected cost of higher education application behavior and access to selective programs are affected, with heterogeneous effects across groups. These findings might provide new evidence on how financial incentives interact with student choice to shape inequality in access to high-return educational pathways in a low-tuition, publicly funded system. 

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